Reflections on a career in international trade: Bart Jan Koopman on the ‘new normal’, survival mode, and the future of global commerce

One year after our previous interview, we spoke again with Bart Jan Koopman, Managing Director of evofenedex, to reflect on how geopolitics is reshaping international trade and supply chains. With Bart Jan now preparing to retire after more than a decade leading evofenedex – and a career spanning over 40 years in international business – this conversation is both a timely update and a moment of reflection on a long career. He shares what has surprised him over the past 12 months, his definition of ‘survival mode’, and why resilience and agility have become essential for staying competitive in today’s trade environment.

Have you been surprised at the events of the last 12 months?

Not so much the predictable unpredictability of the US government. But what I did find surprising was how – for a limited number of people – it’s only a small step to go from a tariff war to a real war. I think it’s good to be surprised about that; if that were to be normalised, I think the world would disappear faster than we all want.

How is this impacting the business world?

Once again, some things should not become normalised. The business world is also evolving from rule-based to power-based. However, ‘power-based’ doesn’t only mean a strong negotiating position but also the use of blackmail and power abuse. These are concepts that should not be normalised.

The business world has had to deal with a lot of things all at the same time: the clear deterioration of the geopolitical situation and the trade climate – and all the associated problems. At the same time, there are also revolutions happening in the business world. One is the digital technological revolution; everything involving AI is going so fast, is so uninhibited and unregulated. It’s a huge struggle for companies to understand and adapt into their business processes. The second is the energy transition. We are still terribly dependent on fossil fuels, and energy demand is only increasing, and energy prices are very different around the world. That price difference is going to put a lot of pressure on existing business models. I think this will continue – meaning that some industries are in survival mode rather than a careful and gradual energy transition.

How do you define ‘survival mode’?

It’s about risk management. Having all aspects of your business – liquidity, currency risk, raw materials, supply of components, digital security – as far as possible under control to be able to run your business processes in the short term.

Another definition please. How ‘short’ is short term?

A daily or weekly basis: that is short term. For example, companies dependent on Asia-Europe supply chains, or dealing with fuel shortages, are having great difficulties carrying out their business processes. Companies need to incorporate resilience for the medium-term and agility for the short-term.

You have led evofenedex for more than a decade. What were the most transformative developments for international trade during that period?

The Brexit referendum was ten years ago. I remember that I was at 10 Downing Street, talking to a number of people from the government. To my amazement, rather than this being a rational discussion, this was a fact-free conversation – more of a feeling – about what was going to happen. Eventually we found our way out of this misery with a trade deal, but we are still repairing what was broken.

What followed was far more dramatic: from Ukraine to Trump’s trade war to real wars. But the most transformative development has been the hegemonic rivalry between the US and China. While this may seem like a conflict outside Europe, it affects Europe directly. Europe is under threat – not so much in the triangle of the three blocs – but in between the US and China. Ideally, Europe should have enough power and independence to determine its own position. Yet instead of a world with three strong blocs, global dynamics are increasingly dominated by US–China rivalry, leaving Europe struggling to find answers – and even more so to convert those answers into policy and action.

Looking back at your whole career, what is the biggest lesson you have learned about how companies deal with uncertainty?

That there’s no such thing as ‘business as usual’ anymore. The world has never been calm, but the previous ten years show that unpredictability is the new normal. I think that is the biggest lesson that companies should learn: not to run their businesses on the hope that things will go back to normal.

What advice would you give to young professionals starting a career in international trade today?

For a long time, the business world didn’t have a good reputation in society – there was a perception that the whole system was aimed purely on the exploitation of people and the environment, rather than at a broader prosperity. I have the feeling that the pendulum is swinging back.

Having said that, my message to young people is that – whether they start their career in the corporate world, a government position, or with an NGO – we all need each other. This will make the difference to those necessary and complicated transitions that we will see in the world. My advice is, if you want to make a difference, work together instead of trying to solve things on your own.

Despite geopolitical tensions and fragmentation, are you fundamentally optimistic about the future of international trade?

I’m a healthy optimist – in fact, optimism is almost a responsibility. But you have to do something with that responsibility, because if you’re an entrepreneur or a company, without a healthy dose of optimism and perseverance, you won’t get anywhere. Challenges will always appear, and things may get harder, but history shows humanity endures, and setbacks are temporary. I’m hopeful for Europe and the world. Recent trade agreements with Mercosur, India and Australia show that cooperation works better than isolation. The EU’s potential is still underutilised, and applying even part of the Draghi or Wennink recommendations could unlock significant gains. The key is to act rather than wait.