Beyond the West: Rethinking Europe’s Role in the Global Order

Alex Krijger is a historian, geopolitical advisor, and founder of Krijger & Partners, a consultancy firm specialising in government relations and geopolitical risk. With a career spanning the military, politics, and global energy, he has served as a Dutch army officer, senior figure in the Christian Democratic Party, and a lecturer of geoeconomics at Leiden University. In this interview, he shares insights from the 2025 NATO Summit, discusses Europe’s place in a shifting global order, and warns: “We are not the centre of the universe anymore.”

Let’s start off with current events. You attended the recent NATO Summit in The Hague. What are your main takeaways?

It was a historic summit with a historic result. In the future, we will talk about the 2025 NATO Summit the same way we talk about the 2015 Paris Climate Agreement and the Maastricht Treaty of 1992. While in 2019 Emmanuel Macron said that NATO was becoming ‘brain dead’, this Summit shows that the Transatlantic Alliance – and Article 5 – is still alive. Europeans will take more ownership of their own defence and security (5% GDP at the latest in 2035), with the need to act quickly because of the Russian threat. That’s the priority.

Now that the NATO Summit is over, what’s next?

Over the last few days, European leaders have promised a lot of things. However, it’s always easier to promise things than do them because it’s the doing that requires the money. There is hundreds of billions of investment required and European taxpayers have to pay for that. That will hurt. On the other hand – looking at the bigger picture – it is crystal clear that, for the first time since World War Two, Europeans now have to stand on their own feet in terms of energy, raw materials, economy, security and defence.

Do you agree that this a fundamental – almost seismic – shift in global relationships?

The reality of the world today is that the world order is shifting. Yes, the United States remains by far the biggest power politically, militarily, economically; there’s no doubt about it. We have a strong number two, which is China. And then we have the Global South with ‘middle’ powers like Turkey, Saudi Arabia, Brazil, Indonesia and, in particular, India. In the coming decades, we are heading towards a world with three major powers: the U.S., China and India.

Where does Europe fit in to this new world order?

It is important to realise that, as Europeans, we are not the centre of the universe anymore. The population of the European Union is 450 million: that’s 5.5% of the world population. That means that 94 out of 100 people in the world don’t live here in Europe. But what do we know about people in the Global South? About people in Latin America, Africa and Asia – regions where there is enormous growth?

Can we talk more about Europe’s relationship with the Global South. What are the main issues?

When it comes to building a stronger, more autonomous Europe, Europe needs to look more to the south. That’s because the rare materials for the digital transformation and for the sustainable energy, the population growth, market growth, economic growth: it’s all in the Global South.

Another point is that, on the last day at the NATO Summit, many Western leaders talked about the need to maintain the international rules-based order. However, many leaders in the Global South don’t consider Europeans to be honest when it comes to maintaining and implementing the rules-based order because they see a difference in values in how Europe deals with Ukraine, the Middle East, and, the biggest war of all of them, Sudan. As long as we still look at the world through our Eurocentric lens, then we don’t see what’s really going on around the world. And if we – and organisations like the ICC in particular – don’t open up towards countries, decision makers and businesses in the Global South, then we are missing out.

What are the key factors that European companies should take into account when looking at the Global South?

Now we’re coming to something fundamental: in the new world order, the Global South will no longer accept an unequal balance of trade. Therefore, it’s crucial that we stimulate situations where trade relationships are fair, equal and sustainable. Otherwise countries like Brazil, India and Indonesia will say ‘we won’t do business with Europeans: we’ll do it with the Chinese’. The upcoming BRICS Summit in Brazil is a good example. If we ignore that, then we are doing something wrong because this is not just an annual meeting of few countries. No, it’s a growing, important international network and many countries want to be a member. Let’s not underestimate the BRICS – they are doing a lot of work on international trade.

What is the impact of the changing world order on international institutions like the United Nations and the World Trade Organisation?

It’s crucial to understand that the shift in world order means that international organisations and institutions have to be reformed. Think about the global conflicts at the moment. The 12-day war between Iran and Israel; the UN did not play a role. Ukraine; the role of UN is very limited. Even the war between Rwanda and the Democratic Republic of the Congo; a peace deal was signed just a few days ago with American intervention. On the subject of international trade, all the issues and the tariffs between the U.S. and China, the U.S. and Europe, are all being managed within their own regions; without the influence of the WTO. In the United Nations today, India has the same power as a country as small as Malta. That’s crazy because India is the world’s biggest democracy, has the largest population, and has the fourth largest economy. The UN, WTO, IMF, the World Bank, and the ICC need to realise that the world order is shifting. If we don’t reform these institutions to reflect the current world order, then the rest of the world will create their own new international institutions like BRICS.

Do you have any advice for companies on how to manage geopolitical risk?

If you want to manage geopolitical risk, it’s important to understand the global geopolitical trends. For this, you need to not only use Western European sources for your risk assessments. Let’s use an example of a company with 40%+ business interests in China and Taiwan. We don’t know what will happen in the future regarding Taiwan, but we can always make scenarios: one worst-case scenario, one best-case scenario, and one in the middle. This requires a lot of homework; talking with many people, local, provincial, national politicians, journalists, academics, businesspeople etc to get an understanding of the political risks. Based on those scenarios, you can make your geopolitical risk assessment: identifying, analysing and mitigating the risks. You also need to use strategic and analytic sources from that region; if you only use reports from Europe and the U.S., then you are doing something wrong. It’s about trying to see the bigger picture of the geopolitical trends – also from the perspective of the country you are doing business with. For example, what happens in India; try to understand it from the Indian perspective. What happens in the U.S.; try to understand

it from the American perspective. That’s the work I do with my global partners: prepare geopolitical risk scenarios and strategies for small, medium and large international operating companies

Where can we obtain this local perspective?

Our view of the world is strongly determined by the media sources we use. I often ask people what sources they use for their news. And more often than not, they mention sources that are Dutch, European or American. This means that they are missing out on the perspective of the rest of the world. So, to the people who are reading this interview, I want to ask them: How often do you use a non-Western source to gain a different perspective on geopolitical trends and developments? This allows you to inform yourself as diversely as possible, with new and different insights. I recently published quite an extensive list of global news sources. This is a great place to start.

You can find Alex Krijger’s suggested list of global news sources here.