“Geopolitics is back in the boardroom”: a conversation with Marhijn Visser

As the World Trade Organization prepares for the next Ministerial Conference (MC14) later this month, questions about the future of multilateral trade have never been more pressing. Marhijn Visser, Deputy Director of International Affairs at VNO-NCW and MKB-Nederland and Board Member of ICC Netherlands, will once again join the Dutch delegation. With experience from both inside government and at the WTO, he shares his perspective on reform, geopolitics and what Dutch business should prepare for next.

Ahead of MC14, the WTO has been described as being ‘at a crossroads.’ Is that correct? And is it still fit for purpose?

To put it diplomatically, people say this at every ministerial conference. For example, two years ago in Abu Dhabi, everyone was saying it was the ‘make or break summit’. However, the reality is more nuanced.

On the one hand, the WTO is still very relevant. Around 75% of global trade still takes place under WTO rules, not under free trade agreements. Trade continues to flow, and the rulebook still provides the foundation for the global trading system.

On the other hand, reform is clearly needed. One major issue is that the dispute settlement system is no longer fully functioning, because the United States has blocked the appointment of judges to the Appellate Body. It’s good to keep in mind that while President Trump started this in his first term, it was already underway during President Obama’s administration, then continued by President Biden. So this is not only a Republican issue.

The second problem is that the rulebook itself is outdated. It has not been updated for over 30 years. Since then, we have seen the rise of e-commerce, the Internet, artificial intelligence – none of which are reflected in the current framework.

Industrial subsidies are another major issue. China, but also the United States and Europe, have significant subsidy programmes. And finally, there is the issue of consensus. Formal WTO decisions require agreement from all 160-plus members. In today’s geopolitical climate, that is increasingly difficult to achieve.

In representing Dutch business at MC14, what are your key priorities for the Ministerial Conference?

Reform of the WTO is the first priority. Without reform, the system risks becoming less relevant over time. Second is maintaining the moratorium on customs duties on electronic transmissions. This is extremely important. The moratorium ensures that countries do not impose customs duties on electronic transactions. If customs duties were applied to electronic transmissions, it would seriously disrupt digital trade. Third, there needs to be a broader discussion on industrial policy. We are currently seeing something of a global subsidy rat race, with major programmes in the United States, Europe and China. This has significant implications for competitiveness, making it more difficult for developing countries to keep up. The WTO remains the natural platform to discuss these issues.

Trade policy is increasingly shaped by geopolitics. How should Dutch businesses adapt?

The most important message is simple: geopolitics is back in the boardroom. This is something we hear not only from multinationals, but also from SMEs. As a result, long-term planning has become more difficult.

The key response is resilience. One of the most effective tools companies have is due diligence. By mapping their supply chains and understanding their dependencies, companies can reduce risks and become more resilient. Interestingly, this overlaps with ESG requirements. If you are already conducting supply chain due diligence for ESG purposes, you are also strengthening your geopolitical resilience. This is not just a compliance exercise – it can become a competitive advantage. We are also seeing the emergence of new roles within companies, such as geopolitical risk specialists. That reflects how fundamentally the business environment has changed.

What are the key trade policy priorities of the new Dutch government?

We are very pleased that trade policy has been given a more central place by the new government. Around 35% of our national income comes from trade so it is essential that trade policy reflects that reality.

We also see a change regarding the importance of free trade agreements. For example, the political debate around the EU-Mercosur agreement shifted significantly; there is increasing awareness that trade agreements are essential for supply chain diversification and economic security. Another positive development is that trade will again have a dedicated minister, rather than a state secretary. Budget cuts for embassies have also been reversed, which is important for supporting Dutch businesses abroad. Overall, I think politics in the Netherlands is moving in the right direction.

Are you optimistic about the future of multilateral trade? Or are we entering a more transactional, power-driven era?

We are clearly entering a new era. After the Cold War, we experienced what you could call both a peace dividend and a globalisation dividend. Companies and societies benefited from stability and open markets. We are now finally waking up to the fact that era is over. We are entering a more unstable and uncertain global environment; we cannot simply go back to business as usual.

At the same time, change is possible. For example, the EU recently concluded a trade agreement with India after more than 20 years of negotiations. This shows you that, once the political will was there, progress was made quickly. Change is possible, if we want it to happen. The same could happen at the WTO – but it will require leadership and engagement.

What role should business play in shaping the future of the trading system?

Business needs to be more vocal and more engaged. At the last Ministerial Conference in Abu Dhabi, there was an enormous business presence; hundreds, perhaps thousands of representatives. That shows how much is at stake.

The International Chamber of Commerce has a particularly important role to play as a bridge between business communities around the world. In many countries, especially in the Global South, government positions do not always fully reflect the interests of their own business communities. By strengthening dialogue and cooperation between businesses globally, ICC can help ensure that the voice of business is heard more clearly. That's the main priority – and we’re happy to contribute to that.